The HSE Centre of Development made a quarterly survey of forecasters February 13–20. Twenty-five experts, including analysts from Alfa Bank, BCS, Institute of Vnesheconombank, LUKOIL, Morgan Stanley, Nordea Bank, JPMorgan and others, took part in the survey.

Consensus forecast for the GDP in the Russian Federation for 2019 is 1.3%. The forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage point when compared with the consensus assessment made three months ago. Four of 23 forecasters participating in both surveys reduced their projections for the current year by 0.5 percentage points and more, six by 0.1-0.4 percentage points, eight left the estimates unchanged, and only five increased their forecasts for the current year by no more than 0.1 percentage point.

Survey findings are the same as the official forecasts made by the government for 2019 – the Ministry of Economic Development expects the increase of the GDP by 1.3%. The consensus forecasts made by the economists and the authorities for 2020 are 1.8% and 2% respectively. Growth forecasts for 2021-2025 made by the experts are 1.1-1.4% lower than those of the Ministry of Economic Development.

At the same time, Sberbank lowered its forecast for the ruble exchange rate for the next two years. In December 2018, the bank estimated the average ruble rate at 66.5 rubles/dollar over the current forecast at 68.5 rubles/dollar. The previous projections for 2020 were at 67 rubles/dollar, while now bank analysts estimate the rate at 69 rubles/dollar. Adjusted inflation expectations for 2019 and 2020 vary from 4.8% to 4% respectively.

Previously the European Commission published a new forecast for the economic growth in the Euro area. The GDP of the Euro area is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020 over 1.9% and 2.0% growth forecasts made in November.

Sources: RBK, ru.investing.com

A new tool controlling CO2 emissions since January

VECTO (Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool) is a new tool developed by the European Commission to determine CO2 emissions and fuel consumption from HDV (trucks and buses) over 3.5 tons.

Standards regulating CO2 emissions depending on the weight of the vehicle, its body type, features, engine displacement and frontal area are being established.

The tool for new trucks under certain vehicle categories in accordance with certification legislation will take effect as of January 1, 2019. Data on CO2 emissions and fuel consumption determined with VECTO will be monitored and reported to the Commission as well as will be made public for each of such new trucks.

Without compliance with VECTO regulations, the carriers will not be able to get a certificate allowing to work in the European market.

(Read more on https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/vecto)

New tachographs from June

In accordance with Regulation (EU) 165/2014 (Annex 1C), carriers will be required to install new tachographs in trucks over 3.5 tons. These ‘smart’ tachographs can record and display data on driver’s work and rest periods as well as truck geolocation via the built-in wireless Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) module.

Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) technology makes it possible for the monitoring bodies to control driver’s working time without interrupting the movement of the vehicle. New tachographs will be more secure and process more data about the driver. Companies will need to update the software to start working with new tachographs.

Introduction of Euro 6-d standard from September

The latest environmental Euro 6 Step D regulation will be introduced from September 1, 2019. Following the example of Volvo Trucks, car manufacturers are planning to introduce new truck models meeting Euro 6-d standard. So far, this will not affect carriers working in Europe.

Mobility Package update

Improvements to Mobility Package, especially to the rules on cabotage, are expected after the elections to the European Parliament in May and the appointment of the new expert team.

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Andrey Abragimovich, TELS CARGO Director: “The European Union constantly increases the requirements and control of commercial vehicles travelling on its roads.

As for Mobility Package, Western European carriers are required to introduce standards banning drivers to spend their rest time in the cabin even if it’s designed for rest. Many countries of “old” Europe are subject to these regulations. After the introduction of the restrictions via Mobility Package, transport companies from Eastern Europe will also have to comply with them. The initiatives on mandatory return of the vehicles after the trip to the country of origin have also been undertaken. The majority of EU Transport Ministers have voted for all these requirements. Fortunately, the European Commission has refrained from such radical changes, but it’s a matter of time.

In the meantime, some EU countries have introduced laws regulating minimum payments for secondees (applicable for drivers, too) working on their territory to protect their markets. So far, 14 EU countries have adopted this practice. Huge fines for violation of the laws have been introduced – in France, for example, the amount of penalty is 3000 euros for each employee.

Regulations tightening control of technical conditions of vehicles and allowing roadside vehicle checks for commercial drivers regardless of where they are from were approved in the EU in 2014 and have become mandatory in all EU member states since May 2018. Besides, such checks have become more often.”

Sources: AutoTransInfo, European Commission, Trucks and Roads portal

In World Economic Outlook published in January, the IMF revised its forecast downward for the world GDP for 2019 and 2020 from 3.7% to 3.5% and from 3.7% to 3.6% respectively.

Key sources of risk are:

· the outcome of trade negotiations between the USA and China – the existing tariffs for Chinese imports end on March 1 and may rise again;

· the state of financial markets following various factors and the possible non-deal Brexit;

· the decrease in the global demand.

The revision was mainly for the euro area – 0.3 percentage point lower (down to 1.6%) in 2019 and remained unchanged in 2020 with 1.7%. The rates for Germany are 0.6 percentage point lower (down to 1.3%) with no changes in 2020 (1.6%). The rates are also down for Italy – 0.4 percentage points lower (down to 0.6%).

For developing economies, the forecast was reduced by 0.2 percentage points for the current year (down to 4.5%); by 0.1 percentage point (down to 4.9%) for the next year. The growth forecast declined by 0.2 percentage point (down to 1.6%) in 2019 and by 0.1 percentage point (down to 1.7%) in 2020. At the same time, the average crude oil prices are projected at $60 per barrel in 2019 and 2020 instead of $69 and $66 respectively.

The projections for China stay at the level of 6.2% in both years. The IMF pointed to the risk of deeper slowdown in China’s economy. Beijing published China’s growth rates for Q4, 2018, which made 6.4% over 6.5% in July – September. The rate declined from 6.6% to 6.8% year-over-year in 2017. Unless the USA and China resolve the differences, China’s economy might add more risk to financial markets, warns the IMF.

Elena Sazonchik, Marketing Director, TELS Group of Companies: “The IMF has been revising the global growth forecasts downward since July 2018. For us, these figures signal that the logistics operators should expect the decrease in demand for their services as country’s economic indicators, the volume of industrial investments and consumer buying power have always been the major factor influencing the logistics market. As we can see, these indicators are steadily declining both across the world and in the Russian Federation.”

Sources: Kommersant newspaper, IMF

Dear partners, dear friends!

TELS wishes you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

May holidays be filled with joy and fun, and the coming year be marked with new successes, good events and vivid impressions.

TELS wishes you xcellent mood, inexhaustible vigor, unshakable resilience and energy for the realization of your ambitious plans.

Sincerely yours, TELS Group team.